Risk Disclosure

What you are doing when you trade prediction markets

Prediction market contracts are binary outcome contracts. Each contract resolves to 1 if the event occurs and 0 if it does not. Between creation and resolution, contracts trade at a price reflecting the market's consensus probability of the event. You make money when your trades are on the side that the market later agrees with, or when you buy into a market where your assessment of the true probability differs favorably from the traded price.

Sources of loss

• Resolution risk: contracts can resolve against you. In any single trade you can lose the full stake.
• Estimation error: Delfi's probability estimates are not guaranteed to be accurate. A systematically miscalibrated model can produce a pattern of losses even when each trade looked positive-expected-value at the time of entry.
• Execution risk: slippage, thin liquidity, and venue outages can cause fills at worse prices than expected or can prevent exits when you want them.
• Correlation risk: open positions can be more correlated than they appear. A single news event can move many markets at once.
• Regulatory risk: prediction market venues operate under evolving regulation. A venue may be shut down, delisted, or restricted in your jurisdiction with short notice.

Delfi does not provide financial advice

Delfi is a tool. The probability estimates, risk configuration suggestions, and weekly summaries shown in the dashboard are informational. They are not recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any contract. You are solely responsible for the trading and risk decisions taken on your account.

Suitability

Delfi is not suitable for you if any of the following apply:

• You cannot afford to lose the capital you deploy.
• You are borrowing to trade.
• You rely on trading returns to meet essential financial obligations.
• Prediction market trading is prohibited in your jurisdiction.

Risk controls

Delfi includes configurable risk controls including daily and weekly loss caps, drawdown halts, streak cooldowns, and a dry-powder reserve. These reduce but do not eliminate the risk of loss. Even with conservative settings, meaningful drawdowns can occur.

Simulation is not live

Performance observed in Simulation mode is not a reliable indicator of live performance. Differences between simulation and live trading can arise from slippage, latency, fill rates, venue-specific rules, and market impact. We encourage you to run Simulation for a meaningful period before enabling live trading.

Acknowledgement

By enabling live trading, you acknowledge that you have read this disclosure and that you understand the risks involved. If you have questions, contact info@delfibot.com before enabling live mode.